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Election Forecast. #1
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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Based on the latest polls and adjusted to reflect boundaries Cons on 282! Lab 278, SNP 40, Lib Dem 26, DUP 8, Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 3, UKIP 1, Greens 1 and Others 8. Impossible to form a majority. govt without a coalition of at least 3 parties.
As with all forecasts it will be wrong, but will it be broadly right? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Interesting times ahead...deals are probably bring brokered now... I suspect there will be leaks (and propaganda) of such in the coming weeks to derail potential negotiations between parties.
Who'll match up with whom..?
Will there be any surprises..?
Stay tuned etc etc |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Interestingly, based on the figures quoted there by OP, it would be the right of the Conservatives to form a government - reflecting the democratic will of the people in that they will have secured more seats than any other party - however, those in parties such as the SNP are of the opinion that they can dictate who goes to number 10 simply by refusing to work with the Conservatives - indicating that they would help Ed Milliband into No. 10.
So, despite the fact that the conservatives might have the most elected MP's of any party, others will conspire to give us a Labour Government.
And politicians wonder why the majority of voters are so disillusioned with politics. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Interesting times ahead...deals are probably bring brokered now... I suspect there will be leaks (and propaganda) of such in the coming weeks to derail potential negotiations between parties.
Who'll match up with whom..?
Will there be any surprises..?
Stay tuned etc etc "
I suspect it will be one of Lab or Con with a SNP/Lib Dem alliance. Hard to see SNP siding with Cons so at the moment I can see Miliband as PM. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"Based on the latest polls and adjusted to reflect boundaries Cons on 282! Lab 278, SNP 40, Lib Dem 26, DUP 8, Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 3, UKIP 1, Greens 1 and Others 8. Impossible to form a majority. govt without a coalition of at least 3 parties.
As with all forecasts it will be wrong, but will it be broadly right?"
if that is the case you'll see a minority govt rather than a coalition... i could see a labour minority govt with lib dem/green/plaid support.... |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"Interestingly, based on the figures quoted there by OP, it would be the right of the Conservatives to form a government - reflecting the democratic will of the people in that they will have secured more seats than any other party - however, those in parties such as the SNP are of the opinion that they can dictate who goes to number 10 simply by refusing to work with the Conservatives - indicating that they would help Ed Milliband into No. 10.
So, despite the fact that the conservatives might have the most elected MP's of any party, others will conspire to give us a Labour Government.
And politicians wonder why the majority of voters are so disillusioned with politics."
all that means is the party with the most mp's would get first shot at trying to form some sort of government.... if they cant get it... then the 2nd most would get a chance.....
i still liked the idea of a progressive coalition of the left... but the way they snp have been, that has all but shot down in flames |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Based on the latest polls and adjusted to reflect boundaries Cons on 282! Lab 278, SNP 40, Lib Dem 26, DUP 8, Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 3, UKIP 1, Greens 1 and Others 8. Impossible to form a majority. govt without a coalition of at least 3 parties.
As with all forecasts it will be wrong, but will it be broadly right?
if that is the case you'll see a minority govt rather than a coalition... i could see a labour minority govt with lib dem/green/plaid support.... "
As I predicted a while back, I think the SNP will be the kingmakers, I cannot see a minority govt lasting more than 5 minutes. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"
As I predicted a while back, I think the SNP will be the kingmakers, I cannot see a minority govt lasting more than 5 minutes."
i think the relations in scotland is so toxic between labour and the snp I don't think they will do it... and labour will almost dare the SNP to vote with the conservatives to bring down any policy they disagree with
if they can get labour can get the lib dems on board (they can rely then on the greens, plaid in wales and the SDLP in northern ireland) i think they would go it alone without the SNP |
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the snp will do anything for self governing so will do deal with red ed and then he will promise them the earth...and then get fucked up the arse..it will cost us all when it all goes wrong .MARK MY WORDS.the scots did not get independence but will get it another way |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"
As I predicted a while back, I think the SNP will be the kingmakers, I cannot see a minority govt lasting more than 5 minutes.
i think the relations in scotland is so toxic between labour and the snp I don't think they will do it... and labour will almost dare the SNP to vote with the conservatives to bring down any policy they disagree with
if they can get labour can get the lib dems on board (they can rely then on the greens, plaid in wales and the SDLP in northern ireland) i think they would go it alone without the SNP"
Hmmm, maybe. Not a particularly stable govt. Financial markets would react badly, Sterling will drop (maybe not a bad thing for our exporters) and every vote dependent on the prevailing mood of the SNP.  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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I think the liberals will be decimated below 10 maybe.
We might take 3 hopefully 
Ukip will be between 10-15 possibly.
I don't think the snp will totally dominate Scotland
And the Tories will be ahead of labour enough to take a minority government.. Maybe 20 seats higher |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"I think the liberals will be decimated below 10 maybe.
We might take 3 hopefully
Ukip will be between 10-15 possibly.
I don't think the snp will totally dominate Scotland
And the Tories will be ahead of labour enough to take a minority government.. Maybe 20 seats higher"
The analysis behind the predicted seats is quite scientific, but it all depends on polls and they are notoriously fickle. It will be interesting to see how things change over the next 6 weeks. |
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"Interesting times ahead...deals are probably bring brokered now... I suspect there will be leaks (and propaganda) of such in the coming weeks to derail potential negotiations between parties.
Who'll match up with whom..?
Will there be any surprises..?
Stay tuned etc etc
I suspect it will be one of Lab or Con with a SNP/Lib Dem alliance. Hard to see SNP siding with Cons so at the moment I can see Miliband as PM."
I hope so
labour are certainly the best of the worse |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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if the limp dems get more than 10 i would be really surprised. hung parliament (i'd like to hang the lot of them  ) looks a banker .too close to call but i hope the cons don't get in god help the poor and sick if they do |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"the deal will be labour and the snp.....god help us all....but all unemployed dole-lites and scotish people will be delighted"
Only one winner no matter how you look at it and thats the SNP
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Anything but a tory government is a step in the right direction. "
Yes they must be stopped before they sell off everything else while attaching themselves to the associated boardrooms......
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"On OPs figures Lab/SNP = 318. Majority is 316.
So there you have it...Wee 'Eck will be our new leader!
Majority is 326"
technically the majority at the moment is actually 323... as speaker of the house doesn't vote... and sinn fein mp's don't take up their seats in parliament |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"On OPs figures Lab/SNP = 318. Majority is 316.
So there you have it...Wee 'Eck will be our new leader!
Majority is 326
technically the majority at the moment is actually 323... as speaker of the house doesn't vote... and sinn fein mp's don't take up their seats in parliament "
 |
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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago
North West |
I think that the coalition has done OK given the state of the economy and conditions nearby in Europe. Most sensible Liberals will understand why Clegg did his tuition fee u-turn because it gave the Liberals a say in other important aspects of the coalition government.
I don't see the Liberals being wiped out unless the Liberal voters are completely stupid.
My prediction will be another Conservative / Liberal coalition but I reckon that Clegg will get his tuition fee revenge by blocking the EU referendum as a condition of the coalition.
As for Labour, my prediction will be an ever falling share of the vote which will be accelerated by more obviously desperate Labour tactics. To most people it is obvious that Ed n Ed are just not up to the job. As a natural conservative voter, I am really pleased that the Unions chose this brother to lead the Labour party and take the party back to their miserable roots. David Milliband would, in my opinion, have had Labour well ahead in the polls by now. |
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"I think that the coalition has done OK given the state of the economy and conditions nearby in Europe. Most sensible Liberals will understand why Clegg did his tuition fee u-turn because it gave the Liberals a say in other important aspects of the coalition government.
I don't see the Liberals being wiped out unless the Liberal voters are completely stupid.
My prediction will be another Conservative / Liberal coalition but I reckon that Clegg will get his tuition fee revenge by blocking the EU referendum as a condition of the coalition.
As for Labour, my prediction will be an ever falling share of the vote which will be accelerated by more obviously desperate Labour tactics. To most people it is obvious that Ed n Ed are just not up to the job. As a natural conservative voter, I am really pleased that the Unions chose this brother to lead the Labour party and take the party back to their miserable roots. David Milliband would, in my opinion, have had Labour well ahead in the polls by now."
you won't see any students voting for lib dems. I'm sorry, but it's not acceptable to make a big deal out of promising to cap the fees, then allow it to happen. NO |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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i think it will be labour in coalition with a another party..but I doubt very much it will be the lib dems though..? I think they are almost finished as a party and will fade into obscurity after this election..i also see UKIP being around for a long time now and make a lot ground as the years go on..i think as a country we are in a terrible mess which will get much worse..  |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"i think it will be labour in coalition with a another party..but I doubt very much it will be the lib dems though..? I think they are almost finished as a party and will fade into obscurity after this election..i also see UKIP being around for a long time now and make a lot ground as the years go on..i think as a country we are in a terrible mess which will get much worse.. "
The forecasts show a majority coalition will need at least 3 parties so it is going to be a hell of a dance post results if the predictions come true. I guess we won't know what we are going to get as any manifestos are going to be pretty much worthless if we have a 3-4 party coalition or even worse a minortiy government. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"i think it will be labour in coalition with a another party..but I doubt very much it will be the lib dems though..? I think they are almost finished as a party and will fade into obscurity after this election..i also see UKIP being around for a long time now and make a lot ground as the years go on..i think as a country we are in a terrible mess which will get much worse.. "
I don't think it's a mess we can't escape from.
In our lifetime we may witness a tipping point... a political revolution... perhaps not as epic as Russel Brand hopes for, but something has to give.
Blind optimism?
It helps me sleep at night. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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So given the likelihood of a hung parliament, and based on tonights showing, who can you see making a coalition?
Cameron and the Tories look a bit isolated, but if Lib Dems win enough seats I can see them cosying up again.
Miliband will look to woo the females, but I suspect Sturgeon will be a tough nut to crack.
All to play for. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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Andy Burnham has just ruled out any form of coaltion or deal with the SNP on Question Time. Conservatives have said much the same. So a minority govt looks more and more likely. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Andy Burnham has just ruled out any form of coaltion or deal with the SNP on Question Time. Conservatives have said much the same. So a minority govt looks more and more likely."
.
One thing we know for sure.... Anything they say now is bollocks and will be reversed in a heart beat one they know who's got how many seats |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Andy Burnham has just ruled out any form of coaltion or deal with the SNP on Question Time. Conservatives have said much the same. So a minority govt looks more and more likely..
One thing we know for sure.... Anything they say now is bollocks and will be reversed in a heart beat one they know who's got how many seats"
Yep. I think so too. He'll apologise convincingly too. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"the deal will be labour and the snp.....god help us all....but all unemployed dole-lites and scotish people will be delighted"
Why will Scottish people be delighted? Labour sold their soul during the referendum. If they had backed independence they would have had power in scotland for a long long time. Now.... Red tories. Fuck them. |
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"the deal will be labour and the snp.....god help us all....but all unemployed dole-lites and scotish people will be delighted
Why will Scottish people be delighted? Labour sold their soul during the referendum. If they had backed independence they would have had power in scotland for a long long time. Now.... Red tories. Fuck them."
red tories lol
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will have something to say about that.