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Global warming numbers part2
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"Is it down to the man or is it the earth natural cyckle? The program was on bbc4. What you think?" Down the heat your pics give off  | |||
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"Is it down to the man or is it the earth natural cyckle? The program was on bbc4. What you think? Down the heat your pics give off "thanks and yes. I like your pics there too x | |||
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"I didn't watch it all, will try to catch the rest of it. What I do know from previous research is, that we are still in an ice age (as defined by having permanent ice sheets on the poles), though currently undergoing an interglacial warming period called the Holocene, which we've been in since the end of the Pleistone era, 11,700 years ago. Over the last 11,700 years, by studying proxy data (tree ring thickness, ice core samples) we have a pretty good idea of the temperature fluctuations over the centuries, which have been pretty substantial. However, averaging these data out, it is generally accepted that the Earth has been warming at the rate of 0.5C per century, taken over the whole period. So when warmists just decide to look at the last hundred years or so and then try to infer something based on a tiny portion of the timeline, I get very sceptical. Nonehteless, the figure of a 0.85C rise in the last 135 years, is entirely consistent with the previous 11,565 years worht of observations. It would in and as of itself mean nothing thouhg if it were a lot greater or indeed showed cooling. Then we have the problems with the basic theory, which on the face of it sounds very plausible, but in reality has many fundamental scientific flaws - too many to list and explain here - you'll have to research yourself. Further, the data used for current predictions have been cherry picked and massaged to fit the model - I've read some of the leaked emails and examined some of their FORTRAN code used to homogenise the data. So, anyone who says the science is settled does not know what they're talking about. It's far from settled. There's so much momentum behind the warmist movement that it's become a religious doctrine and eminent scientists who dare to question it get lampooned, ostracised, and cannot get their work published. I'm not saying that AGW is a myth, just that it's nowhere near proven and personally, I want to know the reality of the situation. At present, we simply do not have enough data and enough evidence of AGW for it to stand up to any impartial scrutiny. I have followed the issue for the last 30 years and whilst not a climatologist, I am a scientist, and perfectly capable of understanding data analysis, as well as having a reasonable knowledge of physics, chemistry and maths. My personal view, and that's all it is, is that it is likely that we are having a small effect on the climate, but that this is overwhelmingly overshadowed by natural processes and there is nothing we can do to stop it. " . That's a very well put prognosis. Firstly the fundamental elements of climate change are not indispute, we can agree on that. So what we're arguing over is how much warming will we see. Unfortunately I'm not quite as ready to accept that natural process will delay the warming that the science shows to expect. Firstly as you pointed out, were coming out of the ice age and wouldn't be expected to be going into another naturally some time in the next 500 years. Secondly we know the sun has a natural 11 year cycle with subtle differences between each 11 year cycle, and the past 4 have been nothing to write home about, with only the last one that occurred during the 90s being something like high (but not record high). The earth's axis wobble or the precession occurs on a roughly 25,000 year cycle and were going to have to wait another 13,000 years to hit perihelion, if as you say that's the natural cycle, but these are all ifs and buts. So I just don't see where we're going to get this natural cooling from. | |||
"The terrible thing is that, assuming we are to reach drastic effects of global warming in the very near future, the world is doing very little to change or prepare for it. I don't see ourselves as very intelligent, if we largely keep on with business as usual. " It won't be business as usual forever, the oil/gas/coal will all run out some day. | |||
"The evidence from the experts appears to show it is largely human caused. I have studied their summaries and believe the best answer is that it is man made global warming. There appears no better evidence out there." Then you need to look harder, or not just bury your head in the sand and ignore the multitude of experts who disagree with the science and have different interpretations and analyses of the data. The plain fact is that journals such as Nature, will not publish anything that challenges the established warmist doctrine. | |||
" So I just don't see where we're going to get this natural cooling from." Look at thermohaline circulation, a major factor in the earth's climate. Warming causes dilution of the saline pumps and diversion of the flow. The Gulf stream is known to suddenly switch off and take a couple of hundred years to re-start. Ironically, global warming is likely to take us into the next glacial period. | |||
"The terrible thing is that, assuming we are to reach drastic effects of global warming in the very near future, the world is doing very little to change or prepare for it. I don't see ourselves as very intelligent, if we largely keep on with business as usual. It won't be business as usual forever, the oil/gas/coal will all run out some day. " Maybe when that day comes the powers that be are going to suddenly tell us about a new sustainable free energy source they have been keeping stum about ..invented by Thomas tesla nearly 100 years ago. They might as well as there will be no fossil fuels left to charge us for | |||
"The terrible thing is that, assuming we are to reach drastic effects of global warming in the very near future, the world is doing very little to change or prepare for it. I don't see ourselves as very intelligent, if we largely keep on with business as usual. It won't be business as usual forever, the oil/gas/coal will all run out some day. Maybe when that day comes the powers that be are going to suddenly tell us about a new sustainable free energy source they have been keeping stum about ..invented by Thomas tesla nearly 100 years ago. They might as well as there will be no fossil fuels left to charge us for "Various conspiracy theorists claim that sustainable/green/free energy sources have already been invented, its just that the global elite want to keep us using fossil fuels as a way of controlling us and in the meantime they make billions in profit from it. | |||
" So I just don't see where we're going to get this natural cooling from. Look at thermohaline circulation, a major factor in the earth's climate. Warming causes dilution of the saline pumps and diversion of the flow. The Gulf stream is known to suddenly switch off and take a couple of hundred years to re-start. Ironically, global warming is likely to take us into the next glacial period." . You see i was always told that in the 1600s that get heralded for the atrocious winters, the rest of the world except northern Europe didn't see a cooling effect, in fact scientists best guess about that was a shut down of the Atlantic conveyor?. | |||
"The terrible thing is that, assuming we are to reach drastic effects of global warming in the very near future, the world is doing very little to change or prepare for it. I don't see ourselves as very intelligent, if we largely keep on with business as usual. It won't be business as usual forever, the oil/gas/coal will all run out some day. Maybe when that day comes the powers that be are going to suddenly tell us about a new sustainable free energy source they have been keeping stum about ..invented by Thomas tesla nearly 100 years ago. They might as well as there will be no fossil fuels left to charge us for
Various conspiracy theorists claim that sustainable/green/free energy sources have already been invented, its just that the global elite want to keep us using fossil fuels as a way of controlling us and in the meantime they make billions in profit from it.". They also claim Elvis works in a chippy , no ones been to the moon and Michel Jackson and tupac faked their own death. Tesla was a genius... In his day!!. We've come along way since then... But nobody's got any answers in the energy department I'm afraid.... If they did we wouldn't be currently fighting for the last fucking drops like we have been for the last 25 years! | |||
" So I just don't see where we're going to get this natural cooling from. Look at thermohaline circulation, a major factor in the earth's climate. Warming causes dilution of the saline pumps and diversion of the flow. The Gulf stream is known to suddenly switch off and take a couple of hundred years to re-start. Ironically, global warming is likely to take us into the next glacial period." . Yes there's plenty of possibly nightmare scenarios like that or the methane bomb, but neither of these would be beneficial to problems of bthe general warming trend, in fact they could both prove to be worse! | |||
