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Help with a maths problem, and should teachers get detention.
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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My youngest lad had an issue at school today with his maths teacher.
The question was :
If the odds of having twins is 5000:1
then what is the probability of Roger Federer ( probably a timely and attempt at keeping it real situation) of having two sets of twins.
My lad said he answered : One.
The upshot of it is, the teacher disagreed, a heated discussion ensued and ended with the teacher giving him a detention.
I think he's correct so :
1) can anyone confirm this, and
2) if so, and the teacher is wrong, should the teacher receive a detention or similar?
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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On the first pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1
On the second pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1.
I'm sorry but I don't understand your sons answer of 1. |
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"
Ask yourselves this :
How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have?
The answer is 2.
So the probability is surely 1.
"
Ah so he was arguing the semantics of the question rather than the mathematics.
Did he get detention for geating the answer wrong or being insubordinate? |
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Yeh but the question asks about 1 couple having 2 sets
Imagine roger is short of a bob or two and goes to the bookies and puts a quid on
He would get £5000 if it comes in
But he is going for a double
£5000 at 5000/1 is actually £25million!
It's been a long day |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"25,005,000/1 the odds are"
But if the odds are 5000-1 for one pregnancy these would not multiply for second pregnancy. The odds would be exactly the same. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Ask yourselves this :
How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have?
The answer is 2.
So the probability is surely 1.
"
I truly don't understand the probability being 1 
1-1 ?
Evens ?
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"25,005,000/1 the odds are
But if the odds are 5000-1 for one pregnancy these would not multiply for second pregnancy. The odds would be exactly the same. "
For each pregnancy but the odds of one couple having two sets of twins from 2 pregnancies are higher...i just don't know.how much higher lol |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Yeh but the question asks about 1 couple having 2 sets
Imagine roger is short of a bob or two and goes to the bookies and puts a quid on
He would get £5000 if it comes in
But he is going for a double
£5000 at 5000/1 is actually £25million!
It's been a long day "
You can say that again.
So, if Federer goes to the bookies and asks to put a £1 on him having two sets of twins, they're gonna give him £25m.
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"How can the likelihood of having 2 sets of twins be 1 ffs??
The odds of him having 2 sets of twins is a multiple of the odds
5x5 k
= 25,000/1"
That's the right odds -
It's the probability of one twins AND (x) the probability of second twins = probability of two sets of twins = 1/5000 X 1/5000 = 1/25000 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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at 5000:1 X 5000:1, (which is saying what are the chances of 2 1-in-a-5000 occurring sequentially, then it's be (5000*5000)=25000000:1 (ie: pretty darned unlikely). if the chances were for twins this time OR next time, then (5000+5000) = 10000:1.
a probability of 1:1 is certainty (like biological death for example), so in that maths puzzle this is not possible.. the chances were explicity stated as being sub-unity.
so, in the scope of the puzzle, afraid your son's answer of 1:1 isn't possible  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Yeh but the question asks about 1 couple having 2 sets
Imagine roger is short of a bob or two and goes to the bookies and puts a quid on
He would get £5000 if it comes in
But he is going for a double
£5000 at 5000/1 is actually £25million!
It's been a long day
You can say that again.
So, if Federer goes to the bookies and asks to put a £1 on him having two sets of twins, they're gonna give him £25m.
"
No they wouldn't as he has one set of twins already so he would get £5000 |
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"at 5000:1 X 5000:1, (which is saying what are the chances of 2 1-in-a-5000 occurring sequentially, then it's be (5000*5000)=25000000:1 (ie: pretty darned unlikely). if the chances were for twins this time OR next time, then (5000+5000) = 10000:1.
a probability of 1:1 is certainty (like biological death for example), so in that maths puzzle this is not possible.. the chances were explicity stated as being sub-unity.
so, in the scope of the puzzle, afraid your son's answer of 1:1 isn't possible "
Saved me typing  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"How can the likelihood of having 2 sets of twins be 1 ffs??
The odds of him having 2 sets of twins is a multiple of the odds
5x5 k
= 25,000/1
That's the right odds -
It's the probability of one twins AND (x) the probability of second twins = probability of two sets of twins = 1/5000 X 1/5000 = 1/25000"
Typo it should read 1/25,000,000 |
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if the question is set before federer had any children the odds of two sets of twins is (5000 x 5000)25000000:1
if you assum he already has the first set of twins then the odds of a second set is 5000:1 since the first event has already happened.
however, if someone has already had a set of twins naturally the odds of a second set are shorter. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"How can the likelihood of having 2 sets of twins be 1 ffs??
The odds of him having 2 sets of twins is a multiple of the odds
5x5 k
= 25,000/1"
watch out for the orders of magnitude the puzzle is 5000 lots of 5000, not 5 lots of 5000 .
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"at 5000:1 X 5000:1, (which is saying what are the chances of 2 1-in-a-5000 occurring sequentially, then it's be (5000*5000)=25000000:1 (ie: pretty darned unlikely). if the chances were for twins this time OR next time, then (5000+5000) = 10000:1.
a probability of 1:1 is certainty (like biological death for example), so in that maths puzzle this is not possible.. the chances were explicity stated as being sub-unity.
so, in the scope of the puzzle, afraid your son's answer of 1:1 isn't possible "
So if a probability of 1 applies to a certainty eg Death
then is it not also a certainty that Federer DOES actually have two sets of twins? A certainty?
Unless the BBC News have been lying to us. |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
technically the answer would be 25 followed by 6 zero's.. 25,000,000/1... 25 million....
however... the answer could be 5000/1 as the 2nd one is in no way determined by the 1st one... |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"i assume the detention wasnt for the incorrect answer but for the 'heated' discussion - "
It would appear so. But if the teacher is wrong, and doesn't know their subject, then surely they're to blame.
Gonna be interesting to see what the Headteacher has to say. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"at 5000:1 X 5000:1, (which is saying what are the chances of 2 1-in-a-5000 occurring sequentially, then it's be (5000*5000)=25000000:1 (ie: pretty darned unlikely). if the chances were for twins this time OR next time, then (5000+5000) = 10000:1.
a probability of 1:1 is certainty (like biological death for example), so in that maths puzzle this is not possible.. the chances were explicity stated as being sub-unity.
so, in the scope of the puzzle, afraid your son's answer of 1:1 isn't possible
So if a probability of 1 applies to a certainty eg Death
then is it not also a certainty that Federer DOES actually have two sets of twins? A certainty?
Unless the BBC News have been lying to us."
hehe you're right in reality, but that wasn't part of the puzzle. maybe they should have used someone else's name |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Ask yourselves this :
How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have?
The answer is 2.
So the probability is surely 1.
Can you get odds of 1 ?"
Of course, in betting terms 1/1 is called evens. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins wonder what the odds of that are    "
If you're telling the truth, that it is factual, then surely 1:1.
Ask any bookies on what odds they'd give you that "A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins".
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"technically the answer would be 25 followed by 6 zero's.. 25,000,000/1... 25 million....
however... the answer could be 5000/1 as the 2nd one is in no way determined by the 1st one..."
that's right, true chance never take into account any previous history (like a roulette wheel), but it is 25000000:1, as we're stating the mathematical chances of 2 slim-chance events which to occur successfully one after the other is 25 times less likely than a one in a million shot.. in fact you're more likely to win the national lottery, probably  |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Probability theory agrees with the 25,000,000/1 figure as the ods of such an event do in fact multiply with each occurrence, this is easisly Googled. Because it is a biological issue, I suspect if there is a family propensity for twins on either side, it would shorten the odds somewhat.
The answer cannot be 1 very simply because a probability is not expressed as a single figure. It is expressed as n/1 in the form of betting odds. as the only interpretation of "1" would be 1/1 or as somebody stated, "Evens" this is obviously wrong as it expresses odds much lower than the probability for one set of twins
All this can be Googled, search under "Probability Theory". |
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By *abioMan
over a year ago
Newcastle and Gateshead |
"
Ask yourselves this :
How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have?
The answer is 2.
So the probability is surely 1.
Can you get odds of 1 ?
Of course, in betting terms 1/1 is called evens."
okay i see where this is going
so if i said "what are my odds of winning the lottery" you could say it is evens... because it either happens..or it doesnt!! |
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By *rallvalCouple
over a year ago
Dunfermline |
The probability in the general population is 5000-1 so therefore two events should be 5000 X 5000.
But in the real world some people have a genetically higher probability of twins. In statistics it is not good to extrapolate from the general to the specific. What it true for the population is not necessarily true for one person.
Finally since Federer already has 2 sets of twins the answer is 1. It is a certainty that he has 2 sets of twins.
If he is meaning another 2 sets of twins then this is not straightforward as he looks like he already has an increased chance of twins so the odds for him will be shorter.
The odds for a population is the average of the odds of all the individuals in that population. Federer seems to have good odds.
Source: I have a maths degree.
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Wouldn't the odds of a twin birth be lower the second time? As the first time could show they had the necessary genes etc to make it more probable?
Or is that just me trying to complicate the issue?   |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins wonder what the odds of that are
If you're telling the truth, that it is factual, then surely 1:1.
Ask any bookies on what odds they'd give you that "A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins".
"
yes because the bookies are taking that into account in their calculations.
if you ALREADY have a set of twins, then that is a factual reality, so they are 1:1. the chances of them having another set of twins from THIS POINT onwards is 5000:1.
of course, I have assumed the school quiz was purely hypothetical, and wasnt supposed to take current children into account.. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Ask yourselves this :
How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have?
The answer is 2.
So the probability is surely 1.
Can you get odds of 1 ?
Of course, in betting terms 1/1 is called evens.
"
But if the probability is 1 because he already has two sets of twins. And 1 is evens. Then why can't I put my life savings on it and double my money ? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Wouldn't the odds of a twin birth be lower the second time? As the first time could show they had the necessary genes etc to make it more probable?
Or is that just me trying to complicate the issue? "
hehe.. OK.
in REALITY the quiz is too simplistic. a truer real life measurement would look a t familial history, and other factors to work out a specific probability.. but let's start off easy.. lol |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins wonder what the odds of that are
If you're telling the truth, that it is factual, then surely 1:1.
Ask any bookies on what odds they'd give you that "A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins".
yes because the bookies are taking that into account in their calculations.
if you ALREADY have a set of twins, then that is a factual reality, so they are 1:1. the chances of them having another set of twins from THIS POINT onwards is 5000:1.
of course, I have assumed the school quiz was purely hypothetical, and wasnt supposed to take current children into account.. "
It was an actual lesson and not a school quiz.
The question expressly asked included "the probability of Federer" having 2 sets of twins.
Not the odds/chances nor anyone else. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"The probability in the general population is 5000-1 so therefore two events should be 5000 X 5000.
But in the real world some people have a genetically higher probability of twins. In statistics it is not good to extrapolate from the general to the specific. What it true for the population is not necessarily true for one person.
Finally since Federer already has 2 sets of twins the answer is 1. It is a certainty that he has 2 sets of twins.
If he is meaning another 2 sets of twins then this is not straightforward as he looks like he already has an increased chance of twins so the odds for him will be shorter.
The odds for a population is the average of the odds of all the individuals in that population. Federer seems to have good odds.
Source: I have a maths degree.
"
Come on let's not get silly.
The question is asking that he had two sets of twins and if you know what the probability of having twins in the general population is, what is the chance he ended up with two sets. That's 1/25,000,000.
And biologically too many variables are involved especially if ivf etc are involved.
Source : one of us is has a physics and one is a surgeon |
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"
Ask yourselves this :
How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have?
The answer is 2.
So the probability is surely 1.
Can you get odds of 1 ?
Of course, in betting terms 1/1 is called evens.
But if the probability is 1 because he already has two sets of twins. And 1 is evens. Then why can't I put my life savings on it and double my money ? "
because you can't bet on events that have already happened. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"
Ask yourselves this :
How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have?
The answer is 2.
So the probability is surely 1.
Can you get odds of 1 ?
Of course, in betting terms 1/1 is called evens.
But if the probability is 1 because he already has two sets of twins. And 1 is evens. Then why can't I put my life savings on it and double my money ? "
Ooooh, does that work with mortgages, double my mortgage, hell yeah. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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Agree with your son.
Federer already has two sets of twins.
If he had none and prob of getting one set is I in 5000 = 0.0002 chance,
The fact he already has two sets of twins is chance of 2 in 2 = 1
Wouldn't put teacher in detention though, unless she is very pretty, and not adverse to the cane |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"The probability in the general population is 5000-1 so therefore two events should be 5000 X 5000.
But in the real world some people have a genetically higher probability of twins. In statistics it is not good to extrapolate from the general to the specific. What it true for the population is not necessarily true for one person.
Finally since Federer already has 2 sets of twins the answer is 1. It is a certainty that he has 2 sets of twins.
If he is meaning another 2 sets of twins then this is not straightforward as he looks like he already has an increased chance of twins so the odds for him will be shorter.
The odds for a population is the average of the odds of all the individuals in that population. Federer seems to have good odds.
Source: I have a maths degree.
"
Thank you.
Cheeky mode on : A 1:1, a 2:1 or a 2:2
I won't sink to Vordermans level lol
Cheeky mode off. |
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By *rallvalCouple
over a year ago
Dunfermline |
"
The answer cannot be 1 very simply because a probability is not expressed as a single figure.
"
In probability a certainty is expressed as 1.
Probabilities are usually expressed as a decimal so that an evens such as a coin toss is expressed as 0.5 (1/2). Rolling a 6 is 0.1667 (1/6). So a certainty is 1/1 which is 1.
The simplest way to look at it is to multiply the decimal by 100 and call it a percentage chance.
I covered a lot of stats at university. Didn't help one bit at poker though. |
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Ok one will always be wrong. I have no idea how many fed has got but if he had one set already the pure math answer would indeed be 5000 to 1 that's disregarding a known genetic predisposition to multiple births
If fed has already has 2 sets the answer is not one to one as that is a probability of evens suggesting there would be an equal chance he would have none .if the outcome is already known as being suggested there is not a probability question the child was wrong but trying to be smart badly as it's obvious he does not understand probability
As everyone else has said remove the name fed , remove the biological disposition of multiple births being affected by genetic factors and the answer indeed is 5 k times 5k 25000000 ironically such large odds still mean with a world population of billions there would be 40 twin sets of twins per billion xx  |
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"all very interesting but you can't have a probability of an event that has already happened.
So saying a probability of 1 or evens is incorrect ?"
no, but since the twins are already born you can have a probabity since its already happened. probabilies are only used for future events. eg you can have a probability that manchester city won a football match yesterday but you can have a probability for manchester city winning a game on sunday. |
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By *rallvalCouple
over a year ago
Dunfermline |
"
Come on let's not get silly.
The question is asking that he had two sets of twins and if you know what the probability of having twins in the general population is, what is the chance he ended up with two sets. That's 1/25,000,000.
And biologically too many variables are involved especially if ivf etc are involved.
Source : one of us is has a physics and one is a surgeon"
I absolute agree but the teacher muddied the waters by adding a name of a person with 2 sets of twins already.
If he had just said Joe Bloggs it would have been simple.
Given the question I would have said 1 as well. |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"
Come on let's not get silly.
The question is asking that he had two sets of twins and if you know what the probability of having twins in the general population is, what is the chance he ended up with two sets. That's 1/25,000,000.
And biologically too many variables are involved especially if ivf etc are involved.
Source : one of us is has a physics and one is a surgeon
I absolute agree but the teacher muddied the waters by adding a name of a person with 2 sets of twins already.
If he had just said Joe Bloggs it would have been simple.
Given the question I would have said 1 as well."
Next question, should i show the Headteacher this thread as proof? |
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"On the first pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1
On the second pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1.
I'm sorry but I don't understand your sons answer of 1. "
By stating the name 'Roger Federer' in the question the teacher has narrowed the sample down to one person who we do know has just become a father to a second set of twins so it is 100% certain 1:1 probability.
As to whether your son deserves detention, it depends on how he put his point accross. Let's be honest was it REALLY just because he disagreed with the staff answer? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Come on let's not get silly.
The question is asking that he had two sets of twins and if you know what the probability of having twins in the general population is, what is the chance he ended up with two sets. That's 1/25,000,000.
And biologically too many variables are involved especially if ivf etc are involved.
Source : one of us is has a physics and one is a surgeon
I absolute agree but the teacher muddied the waters by adding a name of a person with 2 sets of twins already.
If he had just said Joe Bloggs it would have been simple.
Given the question I would have said 1 as well.
Next question, should i show the Headteacher this thread as proof?"
Lol
Jokes aside, regardless of who it is, the chances the ended up with that outcome are the same. |
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"On the first pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1
On the second pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1.
I'm sorry but I don't understand your sons answer of 1.
By stating the name 'Roger Federer' in the question the teacher has narrowed the sample down to one person who we do know has just become a father to a second set of twins so it is 100% certain 1:1 probability.
As to whether your son deserves detention, it depends on how he put his point accross. Let's be honest was it REALLY just because he disagreed with the staff answer? "
Must make this Absolutely clear
100% certain does not equate
1:1 probability
A flip of a coin is 1:1 that it will land heads
One is wrong . The kid was wrong x |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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Thanks everyone.
I'm going with 00Marc and Travall on this.
I also reckon the probability of serving this detention is 0, zero.
Now, what are the odds on that coming to fruition? |
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i think schools should set up a bookies in a room and teach kids how to bet....far more interesting than boring maths...learn about odds, 50p each way bets....they will be excelling in maths grying to work it out. down side is they will be addicted to betting by 16 but will have excellent math skills. |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"On the first pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1
On the second pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1.
I'm sorry but I don't understand your sons answer of 1.
By stating the name 'Roger Federer' in the question the teacher has narrowed the sample down to one person who we do know has just become a father to a second set of twins so it is 100% certain 1:1 probability.
As to whether your son deserves detention, it depends on how he put his point accross. Let's be honest was it REALLY just because he disagreed with the staff answer?
Must make this Absolutely clear
100% certain does not equate
1:1 probability
A flip of a coin is 1:1 that it will land heads
One is wrong . The kid was wrong x"
Flipping a coin is a 2 to 1 chance, ie 0.5 |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"
Thanks everyone.
I'm going with 00Marc and Travall on this.
I also reckon the probability of serving this detention is 0, zero.
Now, what are the odds on that coming to fruition?"
go in and argue his case. Take it to the head of maths |
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"On the first pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1
On the second pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1.
I'm sorry but I don't understand your sons answer of 1.
By stating the name 'Roger Federer' in the question the teacher has narrowed the sample down to one person who we do know has just become a father to a second set of twins so it is 100% certain 1:1 probability.
As to whether your son deserves detention, it depends on how he put his point accross. Let's be honest was it REALLY just because he disagreed with the staff answer?
Must make this Absolutely clear
100% certain does not equate
1:1 probability
A flip of a coin is 1:1 that it will land heads
One is wrong . The kid was wrong x
Flipping a coin is a 2 to 1 chance, ie 0.5"
Apologies to all I'm wrong |
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Well the odds on this change depending on genetics so is quite a broad spectrum question that has many interpretations.
Odds increase if twins already exist in the family and increase again if on both sides of the family. Genetically the chances of a second set of twins goes down.
1 is most certainly not the answer. As that equates to 1 in 2. You either do or you don't which is how your son is seeing it I guess.
Sometimes when science and maths come together there is no right answer really |
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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago
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"Just tell the teacher hes a wanker and give him a right hander.
Whats the odds on that ?"
Judging by the word he used to describe part of the teachers anatomy, i'd say that he's actually a she teacher. |
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The probability of Roger Federer having 2 sets of twins is 0. He is male.
Also ....... are they fraternal twins or identical twins? i.e. is it the mother or the father that carries the 'twin' producing biology ?
Does anyone else in Federers wife's family have twins ?
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"Just tell the teacher hes a wanker and give him a right hander.
Whats the odds on that ?
Judging by the word he used to describe part of the teachers anatomy, i'd say that he's actually a she teacher."
What word did he use to describe the teacher's anatomy ? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"Just tell the teacher hes a wanker and give him a right hander.
Whats the odds on that ?
Judging by the word he used to describe part of the teachers anatomy, i'd say that he's actually a she teacher.
What word did he use to describe the teacher's anatomy ?"
The bloke that taught us maths was a c*nt. If that helps...
Canis, your lad was mathematically correct...
The odds of a certainty are 1:1...
The probability is 1... However, what are the odds that your lad got his detention for being Lippy... And what is the probability that his detention will be overruled...??? |
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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago
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"My mum had 2 sets of twins. I'm feeling like one in 25 million at the moment
think this makes you extra special xx"
Just remember... If you are One in a Million, there are over 7000 of you on the planet... |
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